Exponential Growth on the Coast: Is there a limit to growth?
In 1960, one out of every 200 San Mateo County residents lived in Half Moon Bay. By 1990, it was one in 75. Today, it’s one in 50.
Consequently, Half Moon Bay’s population doubled, from 4,000 to 8,000, between 1970 and 1990, and added another 4,000 since 1990.
Alarmed Half Moon Bay voters approved Measure A in 1991, limiting residential growth to 3% per year. In 1999, Measure D reduced the allowable growth rate to between 1% and 1.5% (depending on where in the city the growth occurs).
Measure D passed overwhelmingly. Even Bart Colluci, then running for city council against Measure D supporters Dennis Coleman and Deborah Ruddock, saw the writing on the wall. In mid-October that year, the San Francisco Chronicle reported, “Colucci, who calls himself the ‘common-sense candidate’, said he opposes
Measure D mainly because it fails to exempt senior housing or affordable housing.” But by election day, Colluci’s SmartVoter website conceded, “I will vote For Measure D.”
It was too little too late. Measure D won overwhelmingly; Coleman and Ruddock were returned to office.
Exponential growth
An annual percentage growth rate implies
exponential growth. Measure D limits how
fast the Coastside can grow, but not how big.
Under Measure A’s 3% annual growth rate, Half Moon Bay’s population could double every 24 years; at Measure D’s 1.5% rate, every 47 years; at 1%, every 70 years.
Coastside residents have yet to seriously address the question of how many people should ultimately live here. “Buildout” is only a temporary goal, to be revised when exceeded.
It’s time to consider whether the Coastside will follow the unlimited-growth path of southern California, or even Santa Cruz (how long before Highway One becomes a freeway?), or retain what’s left of our smalltown atmosphere.
The choice is ours.